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资料 / 核实记录追加：第 8 节第 46 条，门窗装好锁、门外装感应灯防入室盗窃（issue #78）
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追加：第 8 节第 46 条，门窗装好锁、门外装感应灯防入室盗窃（issue #78）

2026-10-05。issue #78 问「如何防身」，读者想知道家里备什么防入室抢劫。查下来，能逐字核对、带具体数字的只有英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查（CSEW）上门窗锁、灯和报警器与入室盗窃的关系，管的是盗窃，不是抢劫。条目据此老实写成防盗，标题和说人话都写明不管抢劫；人在家里遇到人的处置指向第 8 节第 10 条（起了冲突先报警不动手）和第 11 条（躲不掉的侵害可以还手）。追加在节末，没有插在中间。节首导览把原「开车和养狗」块改名为「开车、养狗和防盗」，挂上「门窗装好锁（第 46 条）」。

等级和量级怎么定的

  • 证据等级 B：数字具体，但都来自同一个研究团队、同一套调查数据，而且是比较装了和没装的人家（作者把它叫「准自然实验」），不是随机试验或荟萃分析，够不上 A。
  • 标「争议」：报警器那一半，同一批作者用 1992—1996 年数据算出的是加装报警器降低风险，2008—2012 年才反过来，作者自己说要谨慎看待；Tilley 2015 综述的窃贼问卷研究里，「about 60 per cent indicated that the presence of an alarm would deter」。
  • 口径金钱。收益栏没有金额，阈值套不上，凭判断记「中」：相对降幅很大（十几到几十倍），但入室盗窃的基础发生率低（CSEW 2012/13 年为 2.1% 的家庭被盗），一年下来省的期望金额有限；一次被盗的损失多在数百到数千元这一档的判断没有找到国内官方统计，没写进条目。
  • 成本栏「几十到几百元」「防盗门上千元」是市场常识，不是文献数字。

1. Tseloni 等 (2017) Security Journal（主来源）

  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2014.30，开放获取 PDF：https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/sj.2014.30.pdf（pdftotext 逐字核对）
  • 摘要：「It finds that, for individual devices, external lights and door double locks or deadlocks, are most effective but, counter-intuitively, burglar alarms and dummy alarms confer less protection than no security. … In particular, combinations with door and window locks plus external lights or security chains confer at least 20 times greater protection against burglary with entry than no security.」
  • 样本与 4.9%、36.6%：「The bottom row shows that there were 37 416 households in the sample, of which 2245 experienced burglary and 1356 experienced attempted burglary. The first row of the table shows that 1835 of all 37 416 households (4.9 per cent) reported no security devices. However, 821 of 2245 burgled households (36.6 per cent) reported no security」。数据年份是 2008/2009–2011/2012 CSEW，条目写成「2008 到 2012 年间」。
  • 门锁加窗锁 12.54：「households with window and door locks have an odds ratio with respect to burglary with entry of 0.59, which is 12.54 (7.46/0.59) times lower than no security. … Another way of expressing this is that window and door locks reduce the odds ratio of burglary with entry down to one-twelfth compared with no security.」（PDF 版面里表 2 的列对不齐，0.59 按正文这句认。）
  • 三样组合 34.41：表 3 第二行「EWD 34.41**」；正文「the highest (roughly 34 and 14 SPFs for completed and attempted burglary, respectively) is offered by external lights, window and door locks (EWD)」。
  • 四样 49：表 3「EIWD 49.12**」；正文「lights (external and indoor) and locks (for windows and doors) (EIWD) that confers similar protection by a factor of 49」。
  • 单装：「external lights or door locks confer the highest protection (SPFs of 3 and 2.8, respectively, for burglary with entry) among all individual devices」。窗锁：「When devices are used individually, window locks have the highest SPF followed by indoor sensor lights, but neither has statistically significant odds ratios … This suggests we cannot conclude with confidence that they confer greater than no security.」
  • 报警器与假报警器：「Burglar alarms and dummy alarms appear to increase risk of attempted burglary. The SPFs of dummy alarm for attempts and burglar alarm for any type of burglary are less than 1 implying a counter-productive effect: having just a burglar alarm and no other form of security confers less protection than no security at all.」条目里「挂假报警器盒子的，有人想闯进来没闯成的几率也更高」对应「dummy alarm for attempts」，即 attempted burglary（未遂入室）。子代理初稿写成「被人撬门」，主任务抽查时改掉：原文没说是撬门。
  • 装五样不比三样强：「From a narrow viewpoint of burglary security, households, landlords and crime and safety partnerships should not even contemplate installing five devices since such configurations are less effective against burglary with entry than the above triplets and quadruplets.」
  • 门锁的定义：设施清单原文「Door double locks or deadlocks」「External lights on a timer or sensor」。条目把 deadlock 解释成「锁舌要用钥匙才能收回」。
  • 租房：原文「Households in the rental sector also require the cooperation of landlords to make changes to their residence」，条目的租房提醒改引民法典第七百一十五条（见第 5 项）。
  • 2.1%（只用于本记录的量级判断）：「The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimates that 2.1 per cent of households in England and Wales were burgled in 2012/2013」。

2. Tilley 等 (2015) Crime Prevention and Community Safety（报警器反方）

  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1057/cpcs.2014.17，开放获取 PDF：https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057/cpcs.2014.17.pdf
  • 摘要：「It finds that alarms have become associated with increased rather than decreased risk of burglary with entry. This counter-intuitive finding needs to be treated cautiously.」
  • 早年数据相反：「For 1992–1996 the addition of alarms to otherwise similar configurations of security device, was associated with reduced risk of burglary with entry.」
  • 作者的保留：「It is too early yet to derive that conclusion」。被偷过才装的解释见 Security Journal 那篇：「Another plausible explanation is that burglar alarms were fitted to homes that had been burgled before the CSEW reference period and therefore the respective households are repeat burglary victims, although the data cannot confirm this.」

3. Tseloni 等 (2017) Crime Science（撬锁类盗窃下降、没锁的不降）

  • DOI：https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-017-0064-2，全文 PMC7089640，经 Europe PMC fullTextXML 取得：https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7089640/fullTextXML
  • 原文：「burglaries with forced entry per 1000 households dropped from 31 in 1993 to 7 in 2006/07, a fall of 77%, while unforced entry burglaries remained at 7 per 1000 households in the same period.」
  • 撬锁、没锁的定义：「forced entry, which involves forcing lock or window, breaking/cutting glass or breaking/removing door panel; unforced entry, which includes entering via doors or windows that were left open or unlocked」。
  • WIDE 四样组合 49 与上文一致：「properties fitted with the four ‘WIDE’ devices: window locks (W), indoor lights on a timer (I), door double or deadlocks (D) and external lights on a sensor (E) have an SPF of 49.」

4. GB 17565-2022 防盗安全门通用技术条件

  • URL：https://openstd.samr.gov.cn/bzgk/gb/newGbInfo?hcno=A75C1C66CB989D0A40BFA7A262C93290（无头 Chrome 取页）
  • 页面原文：「标准号：GB 17565-2022 中文标准名称： 防盗安全门通用技术条件 … 标准状态： 现行 … 发布日期 2022-12-01 实施日期 2024-01-01 主管部门 公安部」；检索列表里类别为「强标」，2007 版已废止。
  • 标准正文（防盗等级怎么分、要不要标识）没取到，条目只写标准存在和实施日期，不写等级和标识要求。

5. 民法典第七百一十五条

  • URL：https://www.spp.gov.cn/spp/fl/202006/t20200602_463888.shtml
  • 原文：「第七百一十五条　承租人经出租人同意，可以对租赁物进行改善或者增设他物。承租人未经出租人同意，对租赁物进行改善或者增设他物的，出租人可以请求承租人恢复原状或者赔偿损失。」
  • 换锁芯算不算「改善或者增设他物」没有找到解释，条目只写「先跟房东说好」和这条的后果，不下结论说换锁违法。

没收的

  • 国内入室盗窃的官方统计：没有查到能逐字核对的全国数字，不写。
  • 防入室抢劫的器具（防狼喷雾、电击器之类）：没有找到能量化的证据，法律边界也另有问题，不写。